It’s just a matter of time before the Okanagan Skaha School District will have to once again consider closing a school in Summerland.
The latest census figures, released last week, show Summerland as an aging community with fewer school-aged children and teens than there were five years earlier.
The decline over the five years from 2011 to 2016 was 160 students — roughly the same as the total number of students at Trout Creek Elementary School.
The number of school-aged children and teens dropped by more than 500 in the 20 years between the 1996 census and the 2016 census.
Summerland’s schools were built to accommodate a much larger student population than the community has at present.
Last year, an 11th-hour funding announcement allowed the school district to keep Trout Creek Elementary School open.
This was good news for families living in the school’s catchment area and for those who had a strong connection to the school.
But there is no guarantee this school — or any of Summerland’s four public schools — will remain open in the long term.
If the declining population trend continues, the school board will be forced to consider once again whether to keep all four Summerland schools open or close a building and put the savings into programs and classroom services.
The school board’s future decisions are based on whether the demographic trends continue as they have for the past two decades.
It is possible that the numbers will begin to turn around.
The last census figures show a slight increase in the number of children four years of age and younger. And some have noticed families with young children moving into the community.
Whether these changes are enough to bring the student population back to a more robust level remains to be seen.